afghanistan

US Withdrawal From Afghanistan – Free PDF Download

 

The news

  • Joe Biden committed himself during the presidential debates to ending “forever wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East.”
    • Biden also vowed to “bring the vast majority of our troops home from Afghanistan” but this vow was qualified with “focus our mission on al Qaeda and ISIS.”

Background

Background

  • In March 2020, US and Taliban signed an agreement to bring peace in Afghanistan and ensure that intra Afghan Talks proceed.
    • Troops WithdrawalThe US to draw down to 8,600 troops in 135 days. All troops will be out within 14 months. (MAY 1 2021)
    • Taliban CommitmentNot to threaten the security of the US and its allies.
    • Sanctions Removal:UN and US sanctions on Taliban leaders to be removed by three months.
    • Prisoner Release5,000 imprisoned Taliban fighters to be released, in return 1,000 afghan army nationals to be released by Taliban.

Million Dollar Question

  • Should US withdraw on 1ST MAY 2021 from Afghanistan?

What Options?

  • Option number 1
    • Negotiate a brief extension of the May 1 deadline, thereby buying U.S. President Joe Biden time to produce more favorable conditions.
    • Option number 2
    • Propose a new peace plan that establishes a violence reduction accord and accelerates negotiations on a political settlement.
  • Note: Recent reports indicate that Biden is considering keeping troops in Afghanistan until November 2021

Why staying beyond May 2021 is  bad?

  • Taliban has long insisted its core goal is the removal of all foreign forces.
  • If US seeks extension with reduced violence, it would have to give more concessions to Taliban.
    • Ex:
      • Release of more Taliban prisoners
      • Remove United Nations sanctions
      • A new interim Afghan government etc

Why new hasty peace plan is problematic?

  • Biden administration’s new peace plan features elements that neither the Afghan government nor the Taliban will like.
    • New plan apparently proposes eventual cease-fire, interim power sharing, free and fair elections, and a new constitution that protects women’s rights.
      • Taliban has rejected or refused to endorse this plan.
      • Ashraf Ghani has allegedly rejected the new peace plan and will be announcing a counterproposal that calls for new elections within the next six months.

The Ultimate conclusion

  • There are no good U.S. options in Afghanistan..!!
    • The possible future
      • Withdraw by MAY:
        • Victory for Taliban
        • Enhanced terror activities
        • US working with regional player
      • Delay withdrawal:
        • Risk to US soldiers
        • US pushing both players away
        • US Domestic politics impact

 

 

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